{"id":134362,"date":"2013-09-26T17:32:36","date_gmt":"2013-09-26T20:32:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/?p=134362"},"modified":"2015-07-28T13:43:14","modified_gmt":"2015-07-28T16:43:14","slug":"challenges-in-rural-and-urban-areas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/challenges-in-rural-and-urban-areas\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenges in rural and urban areas"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Residents

Wilton Jr. \/ AE<\/span><\/a> Residents of the Campo Grande neighborhood, in the city of Teres\u00f3polis in the highland area of Rio de Janeiro State, survey the aftermath of the devastating rains of February 2011Wilton Jr. \/ AE<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cWe must take action to prevent the worst,\u201d Eduardo Assad said in April at a conference in S\u00e3o Paulo where he presented the findings of one chapter of the first report by the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC). He is an agronomist and researcher with the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa). The researchers hope that the information in the report will serve as a guide for the development and implementation of public policies and planning by businesses. \u201cWith our report,” says T\u00e9rcio Ambrizzi, of IAG-USP, one of the coordinators of the PBMC, \u201cwe are better able to see the areas where we are doing well and those where we need to focus more attention.\u201d<\/p>\n

The challenges identified in the Brazilian report are many. \u201cWe have to change agricultural, industrial and urban policies, including concern for sustainability and extreme climate events such as droughts and rains,\u201d says Antonio Magalh\u00e3es, advisor to the Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), attached to the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI). “We need to broaden the debate and overcome institutional rigidity, resistance and short-term interests.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report points out that the consequences of the increase in the average global temperature will be dramatic in Brazil. According to the computer simulation models for climate, agriculture will be the sector most affected because of changes in rainfall patterns. \u201cEven if the amount of rain remains unchanged, the amount of moisture in the soil will decrease as a result of the rise in mean annual temperature, which intensifies evapotranspiration,\u201d says Magalh\u00e3es. According to him, this phenomenon will adversely affect crops in regions where water scarcity is already constant, such as in Brazil\u2019s semi-arid northeast.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Northeastern Brazil,\u201d the report predicts, \u201ccorn, rice, bean, cotton and cassava crop productivity will be significantly lower due to a sharp reduction in areas at low-risk.\u201d One likely consequence of reduced agricultural production and land area suitable for agriculture would be declining income for the population, intensifying poverty and migration from rural areas to the cities, which in turn will exacerbate infrastructure problems, such as housing, schools, health, transportation and sanitation.<\/p>\n

The effects on agriculture can already be measured. \u201cSince 2000 we have observed a drop in production in some regions, particularly in coffee, soybeans and corn,\u201d says Assad. According to him, with the rise in temperature, losses in agricultural productivity caused by climate change have already reached R$5 billion per year\u2014and are expected to grow. The prediction by a 2008 Embrapa study, one confirmed by the PBMC report, is that climate change will affect food production and cause losses estimated at R$7.4 billion by 2020 and R$14 billion by 2070, thus harming agribusiness which accounts for 24% of national GDP. Soybean crops are likely to be the most affected, with losses of up to 40% of the planting area. Arabica coffee production is expected to decline 33% in S\u00e3o Paulo and Minas Gerais, although it may increase in the South. Forecasts indicate that by 2020 and 2030, there will probably be a reduction in the production of cotton, rice, beans, soybeans, corn and wheat\u2014the effect of the expected rise in temperature.<\/p>\n

\u201cBetween 1990 and 2010, rainfall intensity doubled in the Cerrado region,\u201d says Assad, “and the current technological model for agriculture has not yet adapted to these new patterns.\u201d Assad says it is now imperative to invest intensively in agricultural intercropping systems, and not just in single-crop agricultural production, in order to increase biological nitrogen fixation, reduce the use of fertilizer and expand crop rotation. \u201cWe already know how to do this, but we need stronger governance,\u201d he says. “We need to increase agricultural productivity in the Midwest, Southeast and South, to prevent the destruction of Amazonia. The reorganization of rural Brazil is now urgent.\u201d<\/p>\n

More pests and deseases<\/strong>
\nMore frequent and intense floods and droughts are likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production for another reason. Researchers at Embrapa\u2019s Environmental Division, located in the city of Jaguari\u00fana (S\u00e3o Paulo State) concluded that some diseases\u2014mainly those caused by fungi\u2014and pests may worsen for many of the 19 crops they analyzed, including soybeans, corn, coffee, rice, beans, banana, mango and grapes, since climate change scenarios predict higher levels of CO2 in the air, higher temperatures and more ultraviolet B radiation. This creates the possibility of higher prices and a reduction in the variety of cereals, vegetables, and fruits available. Another possibility is the migration of diseases such as the black sigatoka fungus, the most worrisome of the banana diseases, which are likely to lose intensity in some regions, but emerge in others where it has not yet manifested itself (see Pesquisa FAPESP Issue No. 198<\/em><\/a>).<\/p>\n

More intense and frequent floods and droughts, according to the PBMC report, will also change the flow of rivers and threaten the supply of water from reservoirs needed for hydroelectric power, accelerate the acidification of sea water, and reduce Brazil\u2019s aquatic biodiversity. The loss of biodiversity of Brazil\u2019s natural environments will worsen; some have already lost significant area\u2014the Cerrado, 47%, and the Caatinga, 44%\u2014to the point that experts doubt whether the recovery of ecological balance characteristic of these environments would even be possible.<\/p>\n

People who live in cities, particularly in coastal areas, will have to be concerned about the increased risk of landslides, even heavier rain showers, and the possible effects of a rise in sea level. More intense heat waves are also expected, which may increase mortality rates especially among people with cardiac and respiratory diseases, and insects carrying dengue fever and malaria are likely to proliferate because of the higher temperatures. \u201cIf we do not prepare ourselves for the possibility of intensified heat and humidity in the cities,\u201d warns Assad, \u201cwe are likely to have more public health problems.”<\/p>\n

\"Preventing

EDUARDO CESAR<\/span>Preventing natural disasters: linear parks like this one in Manaus can help reduce the effects of floods in citiesEDUARDO CESAR<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

What to do?<\/strong>
\nThe working group coordinated by Assad and Magalh\u00e3es suggested measures that cities could take in order to adapt to inclement weather, such as creating linear parks around streams, controlling erosion in coastal cities, where 85% of the population live, and the relocating residents in at-risk areas, to reduce the impact of floods and prevent the type of Dantesque flooding that occurred in the city of Petr\u00f3polis two years ago. \u201cI\u2019ve been going to Rio de Janeiro for 50 years, but only after a thousand people died in Petr\u00f3polis did I see street sweepers cleaning storm drains in Copacabana,\u201d says Assad. \u201cThe mayor of one Minas Gerais city instituted measures against floods, collecting garbage and cleaning storm drains. There was no flooding in his city for the next two years, but in the third year the preventive measures were discontinued.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe uncertainties are no justification for postponing decisions on how to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions,\u201d says Mercedes Bustamante, a professor at the University of Bras\u00edlia (UnB) and coordinator of the team that examined the prospects for reducing the impacts (mitigation) and adapting to climate change. Emilio Rovere, a professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), who also led the team that prepared this part of the report, acknowledged (1) \u201cthe near impossibility of stabilizing the temperature at just 2 degrees above the pre-Industrial Revolution level,\u201d (2) \u201cthe feasibility of reaching the voluntary targets to limit emissions already approved by the Brazilian government\u201d\u2014reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 36-38% by 2020, announced in December 2010, by reducing deforestation, recovering degraded pastures, and introducing environmentally sustainable agricultural, environmental and energy policies\u2014and (3) \u201cthe trend toward a resumption of growth of Brazilian emissions after 2020, if additional mitigating measures are not approved.\u201d<\/p>\n

The experts in this group believe that it is indeed possible to reconcile the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions with economic development. \u201cThe government is not standing still, but its actions have been timid,\u201d says Assad. The federal government promoted the first wind and solar energy auctions, but ethanol, an alternative that is less polluting than fossil fuels, is still deemed less important, he says. An important initiative is the Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC) program, which allocated R$3.5 billion in funding for the 2011\/2012 crop in order to encourage farmers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, through no-tillage planting on freshly harvested straw, rehabilitation of degraded pastures for food production and encouraging the integration of forests, livestock and crop farming. As a result of the Plan for Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon, deforestation fell from 27,000 km2 to 4,000 km2 in less than 10 years, but changes to transportation patterns happen slowly. \u201cWe need more trains, subways and bike paths, we can no longer rely on individual modes of transport, especially in cities,\u201d says Assad.<\/p>\n

The report’s authors recognize that dialogue is growing. Former opponents, such as farmers, are now allies. The National Action Plan on Climate Change and the fact that the United States government has recognized that climate change is a problem will accelerate the implementation of effective policies in this area. \u201cAll spheres of government, industry, commerce and society need to be involved in developing an adequate national response,\u201d says Assad. Magalh\u00e3es of the CGEE recognizes that articulating this response is still just beginning, although concern about climate change is growing.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we started the discussion internationally on climate change, especially after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1989, the subject failed to resonate with decision makers in Brazil. It took more than a decade for the country to react,\u201d says Magalh\u00e3es. \u201cThere is now a National Commission on Climate Change, a National Forum and State Forums, which include civil society. A National Plan and sectoral plans are now being developed to adapt to those changes that are inevitable. Various ministries and institutions have already planned their actions, but there is still a lack of effort and more consistent responses are needed. This movement to articulate these responses is growing. The future is bound to be different, because the government is a reflection of what society wants.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Climate change will exacerbate agricultural losses and affect urban management","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[156],"tags":[217,209,200,199],"coauthors":[5968],"class_list":["post-134362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cover","tag-climate","tag-biology","tag-environment","tag-farming"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=134362"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134362\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=134362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=134362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=134362"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=134362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}