Researchers at the Met Office Hadley Centre, the UK’s leading climate research center, published an opinion piece in the journal Nature<\/em> in December 2023 in which they advocated for a similar approach. \u201cIt might come as a surprise that the Paris statement contains no formally agreed way of defining the present level of global warming. The pact does not even define \u2018temperature increase\u2019 explicitly and unambiguously. Without an agreed metric, there can be no consensus on when the 1.5 \u00b0C level has been reached,\u201d they wrote.<\/p>\n The authors suggested a new index for calculating the level of global warming over a year. Their formula uses a combination of observational data from the last 10 years and climate model projections for the next 10 years. This way, it would not take such a long time to establish whether the 1.5 \u00b0C limit has been exceeded.<\/p>\n Significant variations in the average annual global temperature are common, just as thermal fluctuations can occur throughout a day or a month. They do not always reflect an underlying trend. This, however, does not appear to be the case with the temperature records that have been broken year after year for the past two decades.<\/p>\n The central question is whether this breach of the 1.5 \u00baC global warming limit is just part of Earth’s current weather or if it has established itself as the climate. Weather and climate use the same meteorological variables, such as humidity, pressure, and temperature, but over very different time periods. Weather is transient and reflects conditions in the short term\u2014an hour, a day, even a week. It can change quickly. The climate is something more permanent, with some level of recurrence, and is typical of a given place. Its parameters usually reflect an average of weather records over a 30-year period. It therefore changes more slowly.<\/p>\n Climatologist Carlos Nobre, from the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of S\u00e3o Paulo (USP), believes it is not yet possible to categorically state that global warming has reached 1.5 \u00baC. He argues that we need to wait another two years to see if global temperatures remain at the current high levels. \u201cIt is undeniable, however, that no climate models predicted that we would reach a level of global warming as quickly as we did,\u201d points out Nobre. \u201cThis happened five to 10 years ahead of schedule.\u201d According to the climatologist, there is no plausible scientific explanation for the rise in recent temperatures. \u201cThere has been a 0.2 \u00b0C increase in temperature that no one understands. We must be failing to identify some phenomenon that influences global warming,\u201d Nobre says.<\/p>\n The story above was published with the title “1.5 \u00b0C warmer for a whole year<\/strong>” in issue 343 of September\/2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It is the longest period in recent history in which the planet has experienced such a dangerous increase in average temperature","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":545477,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[156,159],"tags":[200],"coauthors":[101],"class_list":["post-545476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cover","category-science","tag-environment"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545476"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545476\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":550727,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545476\/revisions\/550727"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/545477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545476"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=545476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n– Injecting particles into the atmosphere could temporarily reduce global warming<\/a>
\n– Global warming increased droughts and heat by 40% during June fires in the Pantanal<\/a>
\n– Bacteria in Amazon tree trunks are capable of absorbing methane<\/a>
\n<\/div>\n
Data from other services that monitor global warming, such as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), indicate the same trend. For at least a year now, the world has been experiencing an extremely hot climate that is unprecedented in recent history. While a temperature increase of 1.5 \u00b0C\u2014considered the most the world could withstand without suffering too many catastrophic consequences\u2014is clearly undesirable, it is still within an acceptable margin of adaptation. However, it is possible that this perspective is too optimistic, given the droughts and floods that have devastated various regions of the planet in recent years, including in Brazil (where there have been droughts and wildfires in the Amazon and Pantanal, and storms in the far south).<\/p>\n
In 2015, the Paris Agreement established a goal of limiting global warming in the following decades to a maximum of 2 \u00b0C, but preferably 1.5 \u00b0C, through drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Do the occurrences of extremely high temperatures mean that this goal has become unfeasible? It is not possible to say for sure. \u201cThe agreement does not specify in detail how the level of global warming is calculated,\u201d says mathematician Thelma Krug, who was vice chair of the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from 2015 to 2023. \u201cEven if the 1.5 \u00b0C limit has already been exceeded on some occasions, this does not necessarily signify a long-term increase.\u201d Most recent documents and studies cite that global warming has increased the global temperature by 1.2 \u00b0C over the preindustrial average. Krug states that the ideal approach would be for climate agreements to use an average from at least 10 years, maybe even 20, when calculating the level of global warming, which is similar to what the IPCC does.<\/p>\n<\/div>
![](\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/RPF-geoengenhariasolar-2024-08-info4-ING-DESK.jpg\")
\n <\/picture>