{"id":7472,"date":"2012-02-27T17:48:00","date_gmt":"2012-02-27T20:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/2012\/02\/27\/brasil-em-transi%c3%a7%c3%a3o-demogr%c3%a1fica-2\/"},"modified":"2016-01-21T13:47:03","modified_gmt":"2016-01-21T15:47:03","slug":"brasil-em-transi%c3%a7%c3%a3o-demogr%c3%a1fica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/brasil-em-transi%c3%a7%c3%a3o-demogr%c3%a1fica\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil is undergoing a demographic shift"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"VERIDIANA SCARPELLI<\/span>According to demographic projections announced last year by the UN, Brazilian soccer fans at the 2050 World Soccer Cup Games will have to be content singing \u201c222 million people in action, hurray for the national team\u201d instead of the expected \u201c300 million people in action.\u201d This might sound like good news to those who warn of the dangers of a \u201cdemographic explosion\u201d in the country. However, the real situation in the last few decades has been quite different yet equally worrying. The female fertility rate has been rapidly declining; in 1960, the rate was 6.3 children per woman. This number dropped to 5.6 (1970), 2.9 (1991), 2.4 (2000) and 1.9 in 2010. \u201cThe fertility rate of the Brazilian population has achieved a level that is below the replacement level. This decline has been noticed in all age groups and regions in Brazil. Another aspect that should be highlighted is that the drop in the fertility rate shows a pattern of rejuvenation; i.e., from 1991 onwards, women from the ages of 20 to 24 had the highest specific fertility rate, which in previous years would have corresponded to women from the ages of 25 to 29. The percentage of adolescents from the ages of 15 to 19 in the total fertility rate, corresponding to the entire reproductive period, went up from 9% in 1980 to 23% in 2006,\u201d explains demographer Elza Berqu\u00f3, from the Brazilian Analysis and Planning Center (Cebrap). At Cebrap, Elza Berqu\u00f3 coordinates a research project that focuses on Reproduction in Young People and after the Age of Thirty.<\/p>\n

According to Elza Berqu\u00f3 and Sandra Garcia, who is also a researcher at Cebrap, the main objective of this research work is to show that demographic shift in Brazil has specific characteristics. On one hand is the aforementioned rejuvenation of fertility, and on the other hand is the fact that child-bearing has been to a great extent postponed until after the age of 30. The concurrent existence of these two fertility regimes will shape the country\u00b4s near future. “This shift can be positive or negative, depending on how society will deal with these changes. As the fertility rate has fallen significantly, the population is aging, and life expectancy has risen, in the future between 2030 and 2035, we will have a serious lack of a young workforce, as is happening in the more developed countries, where for decades the population has been made up of more elderly people than young people. This fact has placed an increasingly heavy burden on the economically active population,\u201d the researchers state. “However, there is a new element in Brazil \u2013 the rejuvenation of the fertility rate \u2013 which has not been seen in the developed countries. In 1980, the peak of fertility was between the ages of 25 and 29 years. Nowadays, the fertility rate is highest among young people from the ages of 20 to 24 years. This shows that there is still some leeway, even though very soon young people will carry less weight while older people will carry more weight.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"FONTE: PESQUISA NACIONAL DE DEMOGRAFIA E SA\u00daDE - 2006<\/span><\/a>When analyzing the factors that have influenced the shrinking of families in Brazil, Elza says that in the past families had many children because they were affected by high infant mortality rates. These had to be offset so that the survivors would be available to take care of their parents as they aged. With the advent of Social Security, the State took on this role, in principle. At the same time, consumer credit policies in the 1970s drove people to consume more and to think about adjusting their desires of consumption with the number of children. The big change in the field of communication, especially television, which came into many homes and places, also influenced \u2013 especially through soap operas \u2013 small family values and life styles. Another factor was the arrival of the birth control pill, which provided women with the opportunity of controlling their fertility.<\/p>\n

Bonus<\/strong>
\n\u201cWe will have an aging population until the middle of the 21st century. However, in the case of Brazil, there is still time to take advantage of this as a `demographic bonus,\u00b4 which is no longer feasible in the case of Europe. In terms of education, for example, the drop in population growth, coupled with the aging of the population, can be a bonus, as this will provide an opportunity to improve education coverage and quality. In addition, there will be less pressure put on natural resources and on the environment,\u201d the demographer points out. \u201cHowever, this window of opportunity will close very quickly \u2013 around 2030, allowing for development to take off and for quality of life to improve, provided that this bonus is taken advantage of in an intelligent manner,\u201d says demographer Jos\u00e9 Eust\u00e1quio Diniz, coordinator of post-graduate programs at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). \u201cIf we miss this opportunity and focus only on the disadvantages of an aging population, this could lead to declining economic growth because of a crisis in the labor market and the burden that the aged will place on the young people.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, aging is not the only factor that will shape this demographic transition. \u201cThis research study has confirmed that sexual intercourse begins at an increasingly earlier age \u2013 the result of a more liberal world where virginity is no longer a value. However, this did not happen together with more knowledge about and more extensive use of birth control methods,\u201d says Elza. Even though young people under the age of 20 know nearly everything about birth control methods, only 60% of the sexually active youngsters resorted to any birth control method. Of the non-users, 40% did not know where to obtain them and of these, one out of every five young girls got pregnant when they had sexual intercourse for the first time. In relation to adolescents from the D and E social classes, 68% did not know where to obtain birth control methods; this percentage figure drops to 70% in the case of less well-educated adolescents. Of the adolescents who got pregnant before the age of 20 years, 78% had no idea about the physiology of reproduction or of the fertile period during the ovulation cycle,\u201d says the researcher. The study suggests that sexual and reproductive behaviors are shaped by structural possibilities and by cultural rules. Thus, the poorer and less educated adolescents use less contraceptive methods, by percentage, which shows the direct link between pregnancy before the age of 20 years, poverty and little or no education.<\/p>\n

\"076-081_Demografia_192_1\"Veridiana Scarpelli<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAn amazing 96.2% of the adolescents have a highly positive perception of the implications of pregnancy on their emotional lives and on their self-esteem. This is in contrast with the view of people who link teenage pregnancy to the absence of a life project. The data seems to indicate that, in the absence of a good education, of better life conditions and of better opportunities, an unexpected pregnancy is actually a life project rather than the absence of such a project,\u201d says Sandra. \u201cFor the majority of society, teenage pregnancy is a huge problem, a total lack of responsibility, almost a national tragedy, as the normal expectation for young people is that they go to school and get ready to enter the market. This ideal view fails to take into account that opportunities are not equally offered to everybody in Brazilian society,\u201d points out Maria Luiza Heilborn, a professor at the Social Medicine Institute of the State University of Rio de Janeiro (IMS\/UERJ). \u201cThis is the same mistaken idea as the one which states that the poor segment of the population is about to create a demographic explosion. Among the poor segments of the population, pregnancy is generally viewed as providing social status in view of the lack of professional opportunities; it is viewed as a way of entering the adult world. Among the middle classes, pregnancy becomes acceptable at a much later age, when professional and financial issues have already been dealt with. Hence the reason for more abortions in these segments of the population,\u201d she adds<\/p>\n

In the researcher’s opinion, while teenage pregnancy is viewed as something undesirable, as an indicator of \u201cunderdevelopment,\u201d at the same time society closes access to contraceptive methods and criminalizes abortion and the day-after contraceptive pill. \u201cTeenage pregnancy is unacceptable, but there is no similar consensus in regard to allowing the use of certain methods to interrupt pregnancy,\u201d says Maria Luiza. \u201cThe contraceptive and reproductive choices are being made within a context in which abortion is illegal, there is very little information available, and the availability of emergency contraceptive methods is not widely implemented in public schools. What would the life of these young people be like if the institutions improved their actions and the nation provided more equal opportunities,?\u201d Sandra wonders. After all, being informed about contraceptive methods is no guarantee that they will be properly used. \u201cAt this age, sexual encounters are mostly unpredictable, and therefore the notion of contraception is not incorporated into adolescents’ daily lives. Adolescents feel uncomfortable talking about sex with their families or going to the drugstore to buy condoms. The birth control pill, with its side effects on the bodies of adolescents living in a society that demands perfect bodies, adolescents\u00b4 ecological tendency to avoid taking chemical products, and forgetting to take the birth control pill – all of these factors lead to unwanted pregnancies,\u201d says Eliane Brand\u00e3o, of the IMS\/Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. All of these factors are coupled with contraceptive-related failures and unqualified healthcare professionals who do not know how to deal with adolescents to explain contraceptive methods.<\/p>\n

\"\"FONTE: PESQUISA NACIONAL DE DEMOGRAFIA E SA\u00daDE - 2006<\/span><\/a>\u201cThe fact is that sex among adolescents is still taboo, something which is not being dealt with properly by government authorities, by the school and by the family. Why is it that campaigns advocating the use of condoms to prevent transmission of HIV \u2013 and which has had enormous repercussions \u2013 failed to link problems related to sexually transmitted diseases to the issue of pregnancy? It was a total lack of vision,\u201d Elza points out. The researcher is not very optimistic about the enthusiasm of girls who get pregnant during adolescence. \u201c In general, this positive view is post facto; that is, it is a way of accepting an inevitable fact,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

The demographer also partially disagrees with the thesis that the majority of teenage girls who dropped out of school because they got pregnant would have dropped out anyway or had already dropped out. \u201cIt is fitting to ask why this is still happening in a society where the best job opportunities are associated with higher educational levels. Our schools do not have any special programs for young mothers. Even though we do not have any substantial data, we have to consider that being a mother in a context in which poorly educated people have very few opportunities will have serious consequences on the lives of these young girls,\u201d she adds. A young girl with no children has 60 times more chances of staying in school than a young mother of the same age and income level.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Brazil, the lack of education and opportunities is driving many adolescents to start a family as a life project. This is not the case in a better educational and economic system, as can be witnessed in developed countries, where general fertility rates have declined, and not only among adolescents,\u201d Elza says. Who would actually plan to be a young mother in a country without day care centers or support for adolescent mothers, obliging them to depend on the solidarity of their family members and neighbors to survive and enter the job market? \u201cThis explains the long lines of women waiting for sterilization, which exposes them to STDs. It is not easy to exert sexuality. This is a natural right, but there are risks entailed.\u201d The research revealed an unexpected fact: in the higher-income bracket, 44% of the girls from the ages of 15 and 20 years have never had sexual intercourse. \u201cThis percentage figure really surprised us. The girls stated that they have other things to do to keep busy and that they want to keep their virginity until they get married: this is not only an issue of avoiding pregnancy or sexual intercourse. This conservative attitude is increasing and could be associated with the growing number of Evangelicals,\u201d Elza points out.<\/p>\n

\"076-081_Demografia_192-2\"<\/a>The Federal Government’s Provisional Measure 577 established a national registry of pregnant and postpartum women. The objective of this registry, which is to reduce maternal mortality, could result in identifying the number of abortions, \u201c which is a direct invasion of a woman’s privacy and entails the possibility of pressure from conservative groups in the sense of advocating proposals and measures that would impact the progress made in this respect, such as the freezing of embryos and experiments with stem cells,\u201d says Elza.<\/p>\n

There is another factor in this new demographic arrangement: the phenomenon of pregnancy after the age of 30. The research study shows that \u201cwomen from higher social and income levels are the ones who decide not to have children and instead concentrate on personal and professional fulfillment. What draws attention is the fact that 45% of these women have never married or had a stable partner. In the period from 1996 to 2006, the percentage of childless women under the age of 30 went up from 5.3% to 9.2% and the percentage of women who bore children after the age of 30 or more went up from 4.8% to 6.7%,\u201d says Elza. The perception that these women have of their lives is that they made the right choice and that they will be better mothers when they are over the age of 30 or more. However, when the postponing of child bearing goes beyond the biological limits, thus resulting in fertility-related problems, a new element is added to this demographic shift: namely assisted reproduction. \u201cThirty percent of the women at a fertile age state that they cannot have children, either because they are sterile or because they have undergone a sterilization procedure. This percentage figure goes up to 57% among women from the ages of 35 to 49. Of the fertile women in this age group, 7% stated that they want to have children. If we take into account the women who regret they had undergone sterilization procedures, the result is a high percentage of women who want to resort to assisted reproduction,\u201d explains Sandra Garcia, of Cebrap, author of the research study Reprodu\u00e7\u00e3o assistida no Brasil<\/em>, Assisted Reproduction in Brazil. This study was sponsored by FAPESP under the Young Researchers program.<\/p>\n

\"076-081_Demografia_192_3\"Veridiana Scarpelli<\/span><\/p>\n

Assisted reproduction, a phenomenon seen in various European countries and in the United States, has been in increasing demand in Brazil. However, most of the related treatments are conducted at private clinics and are therefore very expensive. \u201cNowadays, the lower-income segment of the population \u2013 and not only wealthy couples \u2013 want to have access to the reproduction process, which is a Constitutional right. The State is responsible for making the related treatments available to the population in general,\u201d says Sandra.<\/p>\n

Homosexual men and women, as well as singles, also claim this right. The National Policy of Full Attention to Assisted Human Reproduction was implemented in 2005, as a policy under SUS, the Brazilian National Health Care System, but was soon suspended. \u201cThis is disrespectful to citizen rights; in addition, suspension of the policy means that assisted reproduction is not regulated, making women more vulnerable. Whenever a new assisted reproduction technology is announced in the media, it is not uncommon to hear of women rushing off to specialized clinics, in their search for new technological solutions that are still not on the market and need more time to be validated,\u201d says the researcher. In Sandra\u00b4s opinion, assisted reproduction will not prevent the decline in the fertility rate, but it can bring fulfillment to many people. \u201cHowever, women have to be more active in terms of fighting for this right. The existing attitude might be due to the fact that women have been fighting for a long time to have the right of access to abortion and to contraceptive methods, priority demands that have not been fully met yet,\u201d says Sandra. \u201cOn the other hand, the deconstruction, by feminists, of motherhood as women\u00b4s destiny has led to strong criticism and resistance to reproductive technologies,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n

Researcher Elza Berqu\u00f3 states that \u201cmen and women should have the right to decide on their sexuality, sexual preferences, and reproduction. It is the State\u00b4s responsibility to provide information and conditions to make sex safe, and therefore pleasurable.\u201d The country\u00b4s new demographic map is being designed within the scope of intimacy. Becoming acquainted with and understanding this new demographic arrangement may contribute to ensuring and expanding sexual and reproductive rights.<\/p>\n

The Project<\/strong>
\nAssisted reproduction in Brazil: social-demographic aspects and challenges for public policies (n\u00ba 2010\/14827-6<\/a>);\u00a0Modality\u00a0<\/strong>Young Investigator; Coordinator <\/strong>Sandra Garcia \u2013 Cebrap;\u00a0Investment\u00a0<\/strong>R$ 142.680,00<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"National fertility is increasingly concentrated among adolescents","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[165],"tags":[222],"coauthors":[117],"class_list":["post-7472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-humanities","tag-demography"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7472\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7472"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistapesquisa.fapesp.br\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=7472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}