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The Brazilian climate model

012-013_Estrategias_205-1DANIEL BUENOA February 19, 2013 workshop hosted by FAPESP presented the initial results of simulations using the pioneering computer program known as the Brazilian Earth System Model. It can
predict climate scenarios based on data collected in Brazil (see Pesquisa FAPESP Issue No. 177). According to Paulo Nobre, researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) and one of the project’s coordinators, the new model has already enabled improvements to be made in precipitation forecasts, to name just one example. “There was a generalized increase in forecast quality, both for South Atlantic surface water temperatures and for temperatures in South America,” he said. An additional result was the research group’s finding that deforestation in the Amazon increases the likelihood of El Niño (a phenomenon that involves abnormal warming of surface waters in tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, affecting regional and global climates). “The model produced this outcome despite its being a preliminary, low resolution version,” said Paulo Nobre. The model is being developed by researchers from several institutions, in addition to members of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change, the Brazilian Network for Research on Global Climate Change (Rede Clima), and the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change.